Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 20.374046 24.557557 29.190087 34.673612 40.959318 47.911169 56.152005
2025-03-02 13.703978 18.978166 25.459823 33.893269 44.448016 57.087749 73.222338
2025-03-09 10.249380 15.868581 23.361160 33.827932 47.786582 65.457879 89.175858
2025-03-16 7.394918 12.739231 20.430560 31.888203 48.043887 69.490775 99.507552
2025-03-23 6.166947 11.606915 19.936521 32.990005 52.201246 78.631249 116.784402
2025-03-30 4.880657 10.070138 18.533966 32.481789 53.880436 84.338365 129.601238
2025-04-06 4.298809 9.571398 18.623989 34.150295 58.754910 94.701845 149.309179
2025-04-13 3.172355 7.820771 16.358029 31.769537 57.206588 95.588501 155.481772
2025-04-20 2.704670 7.224387 15.968135 32.372926 60.276179 103.380358 171.954908
2025-04-27 2.352648 6.781829 15.776786 33.259687 63.814588 112.013920 190.014024
2025-05-04 2.085132 6.460614 15.757630 34.421022 67.847156 121.570472 209.832779
2025-05-11 1.799988 6.024603 15.438154 34.976791 70.854151 129.614496 227.622325
2025-05-18 1.453014 5.376673 14.665682 34.766290 72.825129 136.603648 244.937334
2025-05-25 1.128549 4.680174 13.672242 34.028021 73.848023 142.203442 260.532245
2025-06-01 0.908791 4.199283 13.063804 33.965468 76.055359 149.849035 279.713005
2025-06-08 0.648243 3.458503 11.660965 32.019541 74.510954 150.953178 288.183029
2025-06-15 0.561134 3.288393 11.664068 33.125002 78.907864 162.562795 314.541707
2025-06-22 0.435516 2.899813 10.995649 32.615109 80.046418 168.440139 331.456458
2025-06-29 0.393360 2.845548 11.252971 34.289109 85.705195 182.682259 363.158460
2025-07-06 0.263775 2.290237 9.900263 31.900495 82.771682 181.093970 367.459506
2025-07-13 0.220215 2.142043 9.764689 32.505885 86.175133 191.363443 392.826764
2025-07-20 0.188039 2.035846 9.742126 33.395575 90.245199 203.054369 421.104025
2025-07-27 0.164158 1.964079 9.821377 34.560722 94.990852 216.221105 452.442161